How do the Ukrainians see Great Britain

It sounds harsh, of course, but that's the way it is: Based on what we know from London, it would be best for Great Britain if the EU soon treated the UK like Ukraine. In Brussels officials are already joking about it, which many British colleagues take note of with a rather cool smile. What should you do? From an EU perspective, post-Brexit Britain is just a third country. And the Association and Trade Agreement with the government in Kiev is the closest thing to British ideas.

That this is the case is mainly due to Theresa May. The British Prime Minister definitely does not want the Norway or Switzerland model with access to the EU internal market and thus the free movement of goods, services, capital and people. Rather, it would like to determine immigration from EU countries itself again and not submit to the case law of the European Court of Justice (ECJ). Because that is the case, a classic free trade agreement remains, as the EU is currently negotiating with around 20 countries around the world.

Most recently in London there was talk that Great Britain could seek a treaty based on the Canadian model. But Ceta is a pure trade pact that lacks the capital markets union, which is important for the British financial industry, as well as another piece of the puzzle that May would like to have: cooperation with the EU on foreign and security policy. The Ukraine model provides just that. So it is pretty much in line with the British core demands. The EU-Ukraine Agreement regulates mutual market access, which is not, however, bound to the adoption of EU law or the case law of the European Court of Justice. It also does not provide for the free movement of people and allows you to conclude your own trade agreements with third countries.

The European Investment Bank could be a means of exerting pressure on the Union

In Brussels, the negotiators expect May to leverage Britain's strengths in security and defense policy in the negotiations. In her speeches, the Prime Minister likes to refer to British nuclear weapons, the seat on the UN Security Council and the British secret services. The EU has benefited from this so far, and it is no secret that it has an interest in keeping it that way.

In general, the United Kingdom can offer the EU a great deal more in negotiations than Ukraine. And that's why in the end it will come down to a tailor-made EU-UK pact, in which the agreement with Ukraine should have a model character - modified by special regulations. The Center for European Politics (CEP) calls such a model "Ukraine Plus". In their Brexit study, two authors analyze the individual policy areas and come to the conclusion that this model leads to a far-reaching free trade pact with restricted freedom of movement, which Great Britain could reward with a substantial financial contribution to the EU and cooperation in security and defense policy .