Will the price of gold go down in 2020?
Gold price forecast 2021
Current gold forecasts from banks and analysts for 2021
Gold price forecasts are published almost daily. A standardization or comparison is hardly possible, as many statements are kept very vague. In addition, the point in time at which a forecast is made and the future period for which a forecast is to apply must be taken into account.
The following is a selection of forecasts of the gold price for 2021 by selected key market players and banks:
Former gold predictions from banks and analysts FOR 2020
Annual gold price forecasts LBMA forecast surveys
The LBMA Annual Precious Metals Forecast Survey is another good source for forecasts. To this end, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) regularly surveys a number of well-known banks and analysts about their assessments for the current year and publishes them in January of each year.
Each respondent can make a forecast of price development for the year in question in the categories “estimated annual mean” and “range”. The latter includes a highest and lowest price as the cornerstone.
The selection of participants is not necessarily representative, but is considered relevant. Above all, however, the results are standardized and therefore comparable. Nice detail: whoever came up with the most accurate forecast at the end of the year receives an ounce of gold.
LBMA Forecast 2021: Gold price forecasts by some banks and analystsForecast status: beginning of 2021. Figures in dollars / troy ounce. Source: LBMA
|Analyst / bank||Prog. Peak||Forecast low||Forecast average|
|ABN AMRO - Georgette Boele||2050||1750||1951|
|Commerzbank AG - Carsten Fritsch||2150||1750||2000|
|Metals Focus - Nikos Kavalis||2300||2050||1800|
|Bank of China - Yufei Liu||2150||1575||2150|
|Credit Agricole - Manuel Oliveri||2140||1720||1930|
|Degussa - Thorsten Polleit||2680||1750||2300|
|LBBW - Frank Schallenberger||1959||1488||1821|
|HSBC - James Steel||2010||1695||1907|
|UBS - Joni Teves||2300||1800||2100|
|Heraeus - Hans Günther Ritter||2120||1760||1955|
|MKS Pamp Group - Frederic Panizutti||2300||2072||1820|
|Precious Metals Insights - Philip Klapwijk||2200||1799||2056|
|Noah Capital Markets / Sieberana Research - Rene Hochreiter||1840||1590||1650|
Forecast for 2021: On average, all participants in the LBMA Forecasts Survey see an average gold price of $ 1973.80 for 2021. All in all, they are significantly more bullish than in 2020. The predicted average was still $ 1,558.80.
However, the range is wide in the 2021 forecast. Between the highest estimate given and the lowest forecast, there is still $ 1,192. This can be seen as an indication of high volatility. Or to put it another way: The experts were very divided on where the journey for gold in 2021 was headed.
LBMA Forecast 2020: Gold price forecasts by some banks and analystsForecast status: beginning of 2020. Figures in dollars / troy ounce. Source: LBMA
|Analyst / bank||Prog. Peak||Forecast low||Forecast average|
|HSBC - James Steel||1705||1475||1613|
|GFMS Refinitive - Alexander Cameron||1635||1365||1430|
|Commerzbank AG - Carsten Fritsch||1650||1450||1500|
|Natixis - Bernard Dahdah||1450||1300||1398|
|Credit Agricole - Manuel Oliveri||1640||1470||1560|
|Heraeus - Hans Günther Ritter||1700||1400||1500|
|Independent - Norman Ross||2080||1520||1755|
|Pamp Group - Frederic Panizzutti||1780||1520||1636|
|UBS - Joni Teves||1700||1445||1600|
|Bank of China - Zhexing Wang||1660||1440||1550|
|Metals Focus - Nikos Kavalis||1650||1420||1515|
|BNP Paribas - Harry Tchilinguirian||1680||1425||1520|
Forecast for 2020: On average, all participants in the LBMA Forecasts Survey 2020 saw an average gold price of $ 1,558.80 for this year. This was well above the average predicted by the LBMA Forecast Survey 2019, which was $ 1,311.71.
The entire range was very stretched. The average was a forecast value of 780 dollars. The range was thus well above the value of 2019.
LBMA Forecast 2019: Gold price forecasts by some banks and analystsForecast status: beginning of 2019. Figures in dollars / troy ounce. Source: LBMA
|Analyst / bank||progn. Peak||progn. Lowest point||progn. average|
|GFMS Refinitive - William Adams||1415||1168||1292|
|Societe Generale CIB - Robin Bhar||1400||1200||1325|
|Commerzbank - Carsten Fritsch||1400||1200||1300|
|ICBC Standard Bank - Marcus Garvey||1375||1225||1293|
|Credit Agricole - Manuel Oliveri||1380||1260||1320|
|Heraeus - H. G. Ritter||1450||1225||1355|
|Precious Metals Insights - Klapwijk||1402||1259||1319|
|LBBW - Frank Schallenberger||1375||1250||1326|
|HSBC - James Steel||1372||1211||1314|
|UBS Limited - Joni Teves||1400||1200||1300|
|Bank of China - Tong Tong||1420||1220||1315|
Forecast for 2019: On average, the participants in the LBMA Forecasts Survey 2019 see an average gold price of around $ 1,311.71 for this year. This puts them slightly below the mean of the LBMA Forecast Survey 2018. The average range between high and low prices is $ 325.
As of November 2019, no expert has foreseen the previous high of the gold price of 1,556.90 dollars in September 2019.
Right or wrong? What are forecasts - and what are not.
Will the price of gold go up? Will the price of gold fall? The nice thing about forecasts is that they are - forecasts. You can be right or wrong. As a rule, one is happy when at least one trend has been correctly identified. When analyzing forecasts, the “who is speaking” from modern communication theory is of great importance. Believes: It doesn't just matter what is said, but also who says it.
In contrast to small private investors, banks are key players in the market. When banks publish assessments or analyzes, that is important. Banks also sell or buy gold and thus have market interests. Common sense knows that anyone who wants to sell is interested in high gold prices; if you want to buy, you are interested in cheap gold prices.
One cannot assume that every bank forecast is influenced by the market. Of course, predictions and outlooks are helpful in making decisions. A professional and well-founded chart analysis provides reliable information. But financial institutions also know the laws of market psychology. So when banks publish their gold price forecasts, it's not just about “right” or “wrong”. It is also about future interests.
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