How can I flash a bank account
Based on a script from 1987 - Bank sees “flash crash” in stocks: should this warning be taken seriously?
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Actually, on Friday, in response to a general request, I wanted a bit more detail from a strategy paper from the company Merrill Lynch to report. Nothing came of this for reasons of space. But now I will of course make up for it - a matter of honor.
In the strategy paper, the authors compare the current situation on the financial markets with that immediately before the stock market crash of October 19, 1987, also known as "Black Monday".
As a reminder: On this day the much noticed went Dow Jones Industrial Index by more than 20 percent lower from trading and carried away other stock market barometers around the globe. Even the one that was created only a few months earlier Swiss Performance Index (SPI) suffered painful losses at the time.
As Merrill Lynch strategists correctly point out, the shock wave back then came from the rise in bond yields. And it is precisely in the latter that they now see a danger for the stock markets that should not be underestimated.
If it behaves according to the script outlined by the American investment bank, then it is time to breathe a sigh of relief on the local bond market. However, the joy about it should only last for a short time and end in a stock market crash - today one would rather speak of a "flash crash".
Merrill Lynch is by the way not the only warning investment bank. The for J. P. Morgan Active strategists assume that major fund providers and other powerful major investors will even have to part with stocks worth up to $ 316 billion in the course of a so-called "rebalancing" at the end of the quarter. Of this, 65 billion dollars alone could come from the assets of the Norwegian state fund, according to calculations by the strategists.
That would probably mess up one or the other share on the Swiss stock market, as there is hardly a listed company in this country in which the Scandinavians are not among the major shareholders.
I myself consider the consequences of a possible "rebalancing" towards the end of the quarter to be a greater danger than those of a "flash crash" on the New York Stock Exchange ...
The for Julius Baer active company boss Philipp Rickenbacher made no secret of the fact that he was not averse to a larger purchase in the recent past. Now there could be movement in this matter - provided that it is Federal Financial Market Supervisory Authority (Finma) then allows. Because the Zürcher Bank is still banning complex takeovers.
If you can believe an article in the "Irish Times", then Rickenbacher vies for the favor of the local financial boutique Davy. There is talk of a purchase price of just under CHF 450 million.
In a comment notes Deutsche Bank-Analyst Benjamin Goy it is clear that the list of possible prospects for Davy should be long. He also doesn't see the Irish financial boutique as the ideal takeover target for Julius Baer. In addition to assets under management amounting to 15 billion francs, Davy also has a comprehensive capital market business that would presumably have to be resold.
Anyone who thinks that such a company purchase would call dividend policy or the share buyback program into question is wrong. According to the analyst, the Zurich bank can easily raise the equivalent of CHF 450 million.
For my taste the takeover speculations rumored by the "Irish Times" are tainted with a lot of "ifs" and "buts". Is the daily newspaper even aware of Finma's takeover ban?
|The cash Insider takes in market rumors as well as strategy, industry or company studies and interprets them. Market rumors are deliberately not checked for their truthfulness. Rumors, speculations and everything that interests traders and market participants should be passed on quickly to the readers. No responsibility is taken for the correctness of the content. The personal opinion of the cash insider does not have to coincide with that of the cash editorial team. The cash insider is active on the stock exchange himself. This is the only way to achieve the market proximity necessary for this type of news. The opinions expressed are not recommendations to buy or sell to the readership.|
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